A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
