🔗 Share this article

China has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.